Scarcely a week goes by when I don't read or hear that Jean Chrétien, in so many words, doesn't give a damn about democracy. If the Prime Minister isn't ramming legislation through Parliament with little or no debate, he's stacking the unelected Senate with Liberal hacks. If he's not doling out well paying jobs to friends and supporters, he's cracking down on his MPs who might be tempted to show a little independence. Contrary to the Liberals' 1993 policy paper, "emasculated" Liberal MPs have seen their power and influence decrease to the point where it seems that almost every vote is a vote of "confidence" in which every Liberal darn well better tow the government line. Because of these things and more, Jean Chrétien is viewed by many as a "dictator," although to be fair, some tack on the prefix "benevolent."
The next Prime Minister, Paul Martin, has promised to change much of this. He speaks of the "Democratic Deficit" and has called for more free votes in the House of Commons, an independent ethics commissioner, more independence for parliamentary committees, and to a certain extent, parliamentary review of major appointments. Although nothing Paul Martin has actually done should make anybody think he really wants to "democratize" the system, it is very possible, in fact probable, that all this democratization, and even more will actually happen. We will owe it all to Paul Martin Jr., although not for the reasons we might think. In his drive for 24 Sussex, Paul Martin has begun a chain of events that already may be beyond his control and may force him out of office much sooner than (almost) everybody anticipates. And even if he does manage to hang on for as long as he wants to, it will be a very rocky road for him indeed.
The Liberal Party of Canada has a unique internal culture. And in this culture, there are two overriding RULES. Rule number 1 for a good Liberal is that you do nothing that causes damage to the Liberal Party. Damage to the party being defined as anything that will prevent it from forming, or continuing to form a government. Rule number 2 is that you display unquestioning loyalty to the leader of the party. It is the adherence to these RULES that have allowed the Liberals to govern
Canada
virtually non-stop for the past 100 years, give or take a decade or two. The Conservatives keep shooting themselves in the electoral foot because of their inability to take these rules to heart while the Canadian Alliance's addiction to "grassroots democracy" encourages their internal squabbling. This might give more freedom to individual party members, but all the voting public sees is a bunch of disorganized crybabies who don't know what they're doing, and therefore are unfit to govern.
When John Turner resigned from Pierre Trudeau's cabinet in 1975, the RULES forced Turner (still with burning Prime Ministerial ambitions of his own) to play nice-nice in public, smiling and being at least cordial to Trudeau, and even campaigning for the Liberals. Who would have thought that it would take almost a decade to get rid of the Philosopher King? The RULES also prevented Liberals with an eye to the top job from (too) overtly campaigning for the leadership until it officially became available, so when the job opened up, no one candidate had an insurmountable lead. In 1968 Paul Martin Sr. could not secure the top job in the face of Trudeaumania, and in the 1970s, while waiting for Trudeau to pack it in, John Turner was not able to undermine Trudeau very much at all. Being the heir apparent for a decade was Turner's downfall.
Until today, the Liberal Party has only turfed out a leader if that leader is going to lose AND there was nobody else who could do any better. Pierre Trudeau fought the 1979 election in which he lost to Joe Clark because even with all of the Liberal problems, it was felt that Trudeau could give the Liberals their best shot at retaining power or at least minimizing their losses.
Paul Martin Jr. is changing the RULES. When Lester Pearson retired from politics in 1968, it was "supposed" to be the senior Paul Martin's turn. But with Pearson against him and of course Trudeaumania, Martin was blown away. Ten years earlier, Martin had complained bitterly about Pearson when Diefenbaker beat him, (see rule 2.) Learning from history, the current Paul Martin decided not to make the same mistakes that cost others their chance at running the country. To eliminate the possibility of some "fresh face" coming along and Trudeau him out of the leadership so rightfully his, Martin systematically went about taking control of the Liberal Party, which is what will make him a shoe-in for the leadership in November. To prevent the current Prime Minister from hanging on to the job until it's too late, Paul Martin went about undermining Jean Chrétien, and has succeeded in forcing a sitting Prime Minister into retirement, something John Turner would never have been able to do. (Fortunately for Martin, with the opposition in such historic disarray, he has little fear of repeating Turner's fate after he became Prime Minister in 1984.)
Jean Chrétien is also changing the RULES. There are two ways to earn power in politics, by winning votes or by bringing in money. The old rules split the power between the politicians and the party brass, who were responsible for the bulk of the fund raising. This power has been used in the past by the Party to keep the leader in check. The new party financing law, generating $1.75 per vote for the party, will take the collection of most of the party's money out of the hands of the party elite, giving even more power to the Prime Minister who is mostly responsible for winning the votes that will now generate the money from the taxpayer. This is why the Liberal Party President Stephen LeDrew called the new system "dumb as a bag of hammers."
When Paul Martin becomes Prime Minister, he will be 65 years old. I'm sure it's assumed that Martin will be good for at most only 2 elections, in 2004 and 2008 when Martin will be 70. John Manley and Sheila Copps believe that 2010 will be a good year for the Liberal leadership to open up again, when Manley will be 60, and Copps 58.
John Manley and Sheila Copps are not stupid, nor are most of the others who say "Good morning Prime Minister" to the bathroom mirror every morning. They have learned well how Paul Martin secured the Liberal Party leadership, and will feel free to emulate his methods. The day after Martin's coronation, perhaps up to a dozen Liberals will actively begin the process of building up as much personal support as possible in order to guarantee themselves the leadership, just like Martin did this time around.
Paul Martin, rightly fearing that this jockeying for power will pose a threat to his leadership will feel forced to clamp down on anything that strikes at insubordination. You think the current Prime Minister is a dictator? Just wait for Paul Martin, who won't have the same iron stomach as Jean Chrétien did.
When Paul Martin tries to clamp down on his caucus to prevent Manley, Copps, and others from doing that he himself did, the Liberal Party may fracture. Newspaper stories will be written about Martin's hypocrisy and potential Liberal leaders will do their level best to ignore the Prime Minister and continue their unofficial campaigns to replace him. They will realize that if they are successfully shut down by a frightened P.M., they may never be able to build enough support to take over when Martin retires, especially if Martin has a favorite successor picked out. This will increase the back room politicking to force Martin out early, the way Martin is forcing Chrétien out today, and because of the new party financing rules, the Liberal Party elite will not be able to do anything about it.
In an effort to maintain his position as Prime Minister, Paul Martin will be forced to institute the democratization he has been talking about, giving much more power to MPs, and instituting other changes designed to appeal to Canadians, and more importantly, the Liberal backbenches. Martin will of course say he's only following through on promises he made in 2003, but given his recent dictatorial attempts, this will ring hollow, fuelling the long-standing notion that Paul Martin stands for nothing except being Prime Minister. The constant in-fighting and dissent within the Liberal Party will be so fierce, that Paul Martin may even be forced to retire long before 2010.
The very democracy that Paul Martin is promising will come (to a certain extent) to the Liberal Party and by extension to Canada,
and it will be responsible for his demise, abbreviating Martin's term as Prime Minister, or at the very least hampering him severely. Jean Chrétien will have his revenge and future Liberal leaders will be forced to deal with, or live with the increasing intrigues of his or her MPs, not that the Liberal Party has ever been immune from such things. Paul Martin's grip on the Liberal Party may be strong enough for him to hold on until the retirement date of his own choosing, but certainly the Liberal leader that follows him won't have the unqualified support Liberal leaders have traditionally come to expect.
The rules are changing, democracy is coming (again to a certain extent,) and the Liberals won't be seen to be much, if any more competent than the opposition. Aside from it all being fun to watch, it will probably be a good thing for Canada.
