Paul Martin has taken what only last year was supposed to be a slam-dunk historic sweep of the country and bungled it into a minority....losing miserably in Quebec where he was supposed to finish off the Bloc Québécois once and for all. With the Liberals at 135 seats, the Conservatives with 99, the Bloc at 54, and the NDP holding onto 19, both a Liberal/NDP coalition and a Conservative/Bloc coalition comes up just shy of the 155 votes needed to ensure any confidence motions pass in the 308 seat Parliament.
So what's going to happen? Will Paul Martin be able to govern Canada? The wild-card in the mix is one Chuck Cadman, the new independent MP from British Columbia. The former Conservative had to run as an independent after he was cheated out of his nomination by Jasbir Singh Cheema who sold 1500 party memberships and swamped the nomination meeting. Will Cadman join the Liberals, giving a Liberal/NDP coalition the 155 votes needed to govern? Or will be welcomed back into the Conservative fold?
Here are the rules by which I believe the the future will unfold :
- Just like the NDP always dreams of holding the "balance of power," propping up a government which will be forced to do its bidding in exchange for its support, Chuck Cadman now finds himself in the enviable position of holding his very own "balance of power." His one vote could conceivably be the difference between Paul Martin being able to govern and not. Therefore Cadman will not fritter away this power quickly by melding himself into either the Conservative or Liberal parties, neither of whom he needs to get elected.
- The Bloc Québécois cannot win more than the 54 seats they hold today in any future election.
- The NDP can't do any worse than the 19 seats they won on Monday in any future election.
- This minority government cannot under any circumstances last more than 2 years.
- The Conservative Party and yes, even the Green Party will only become better prepared to fight the next election as time goes on.
- Because of the way Paul Martin secured the leadership of the Liberal Party, there will be tremendous jockying for position within the Liberals to push him aside as he did to Jean Chrétien.
- Jack Layton is pissed off by the way Paul Martin scared NDP supporters into voting Liberal (in the process defeating his wife Olivia Chow who lost by 800 votes) in order to stop that devil Stephen Harper. Layton wants revenge - you can hear it in his voice.
- The resignation, death, or change in party affiliation of just one or two MPs could make a workable government untenable. Martin will want to go to the polls as soon as he thinks the wind is at his back.
- Politically, neither the Liberals or the Conservatives will be able to form any sort of formal coalition with the Bloc in exchange for propping up the government. Playing footsies with separatists won't go over well outside of Quebec. But of course nobody wants to antagonize the Bloc for fear of being insensitive to Quebec. Good luck knowing where the line is drawn.
- All parties want the public to believe they are acting "responsibly" in the best interest of the country...or at least their constituents.
All of these conflicting rules lead me to the following inescapable conclusions :
- Paul Martin will form a government with the support of the NDP and Chuck Cadman.
- Being furious at Martin, and knowing that they'd probably do better in the next election, the NDP will demand a lot in return for their support - At the very least, real movement towards some sort of proportional representation.
- Martin will be able to temper these demands because for the government to survive, the support of right-leaning Cadman will also be required to hold up the Liberals. Does the NDP want to be the crybaby in Parliament?
- The Bloc Québécois, wanting to avoid an election at all costs may come to Martin's rescue on a case by case basis. Even though they are just as left-wing as the NDP on most issues, unlike the NDP, they don't want a quick election and so will be easier to buy off.
- Martin will want a new election sooner, rather than later because as he's forced to move to the left to obtain support from the NDP and the Bloc, Martin will start to lose his reputation as a conservative and competent money manager, and the Conservative Party will fill the void he has to open up on his right flank. Add to that Martin's credentials as a federalist will take a hit with every deal he makes with the Bloc.
- Other pressures on Paul Martin to call a quick election include a need to get his own solid majority to stall the leadership aspirations of others in the Liberal Party in addition to the fact that the longer he rules with the help of the NDP and/or Bloc, the farther their left-wingnut ideas will go.
- The next provincial election in Quebec doesn't have to take place before 2008, so Gilles Duceppe will want to manipulate the time of the next federal election so that he can sweep Quebec once more leading up to the triumphant return to power of the Parti Québécois, to be followed up by a snap referendum. If Martin doesn't call an election on his own terms, he risks letting the Bloc dictate the electoral timetable. Martin knows if he waits much more than a year, Duceppe might decide when the next election will be.
So we're in for a very volatile and interesting session come the fall. The NDP trying to press the Liberals hard for their support without appearing to be unreasonable in an effort to get Martin to call an election as early as possible. The Bloc being freakishly conciliatory towards the Liberal government, even supporting Martin to keep an election at bay until it's convenient to declare that "federalism isn't working." The Conservatives eating into the Liberal support on the right, while continuing to build organizations in Ontario and Quebec. Martin trying desperately to find some issue which is opposed by all of the other parties so that they can claim that they "tried to govern responsibly" but now require a strong mandate.
A fall election is out of the question, unless the judicial inquiry into the ADSCAM scandal hits the fan in a big way. But by May of 2005 at the latest, the combined pressures will force Canada into another trip to the polls.
